Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030

Holiday demand in the German source market

In time for the 50th anniversary of Reiseanalyse, the fifth edition of the Reiseanalyse Trend study was published in October 2020, revised and with a time horizon up to the year 2030. The authors already take the effects of the corona pandemic of 2020 on the further development of the tourism and holiday demand in the German market into account.

The Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030 describes the development of the holiday demand in Germany, from the early 1970s up to the year 2030. The empirical basis for the study is provided by the Reiseanalyse (RA) of the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen (FUR) e.V., which has been continuously surveying the travel behaviour of the German population for the last 50 years. Every year, around 7,500 people throughout Germany are personally interviewed in order to collect data representative of the population. The time series of the RA therefore provide a reliable overall picture of the development of holiday demand in Germany over the past decades. These data also give indications for the future demand. The search for regular correlations in the past and their extrapolation into the future, while taking into account significant influencing factors from the environment and the tourism supply, allows forecasts on the probable direction and strength of travel trends in the coming years.

The current Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030 is once again based on the proven principle of data-based considering. The methodological, data and field knowledge of the authors Martin Lohmann, Nadine Yarar, Ulf Sonntag and Dirk Schmücker, together with the time series data of the RA of the last 50 years, provide the basis of this study.

How does tourism continue during and after Corona?

With the appearance of the Corona pandemic in 2020, the longlasting and supposedly unstoppable path of growth in tourism has come to a sudden halt for the time being, giving way to concerns about whether, when and to what extent tourism will pick up speed again. The Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030 takes up this particular development and looks at short and medium-term deviations in the expected holiday demand for the years 2020 to 2025 – assuming that in the coming years there will be no travel restrictions comparable to those in 2020. The consequences of the pandemic provide the opportunity and the need to rethink the future of tourism. Knowledge of long-term trends provides an important basis for this.

Content of the Trend Study 2030

The Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030 analyses the past and foreseeable future demand on the German holiday travel market against the background of an analysis of the environment and the supply. The actual projection is divided into ten sub-chapters. The concluding chapter “Trend-based overview – comment and outlook” provides a summary assessment of the customers, their trips and the fields of stability and dynamics up to the year 2030. A management summary is also provided.

The structure of the Trend Study 2030 at a glance:

  1. General environment
  2. Coronavirus impact on holiday travel
  3. Trends in tourism services
  4. Holiday expectations
  5. Volume of demand
  6. Information, planning and booking
  7. Holiday destinations
  8. Holiday travel behaviour
  9. Types of holidays and holiday activities
  10. Trend-based overview – comment and outlook

The Reiseanalyse Trend Study 2030 comprises 148 pages with a total of 80 illustrations. The German original publication is already available, an English translation will be published in December 2020. The trend study is available both in printed form (soft cover) and as a digital report (protected PDF) at a price of € 690 (plus VAT) directly from the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen (FUR) e.V.

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