The trend study: Vacation demand in the source market Germany

In October 2020, the fifth edition of the Reiseanalyse Trendstudie was published with a time horizon into the travel year 2030. The trend study describes the development lines of the demand side of vacation tourism in Germany from the 1970s to 2030. The empirical basis for the study provides the data basis from more than 50 years of Reiseanalyse (RA) of the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen (FUR) e.V. (Research Association for Vacation and Travel).

The RA time series provide a reliable overall picture of the development of tourism demand in Germany over the past decades. The development data also always point to the future. The search for regular correlations in the past and their extrapolation into the future allow statements to be made about the probable direction and strength of travel trends in the coming decade.

The Update: The Impact of the Corona Pandemic

At the time of publication of the RA Trend Study 2030, the global Corona pandemic was just six months old. The authors had taken its impact on tourism demand in Germany into account as best as possible in the trend description at that time. However, there was little market data on consumer behavior during the pandemic that would have allowed conclusions to be drawn about the future.

In the meantime, considerably more data are available from six survey waves of the RA face-to-face and the RA online. These data, together with the findings from numerous scientific publications, allow a more precise assessment of future developments. Therefore, the FUR presents this update to the RA trend study.

Nevertheless, considerable uncertainties remain, particularly with regard to the further development and manifestation of the Corona virus, but also with regard to the duration of the travel restrictions that remain in place. The FUR therefore plans to prepare a further update of the trend study by fall 2022.

It has always been the claim of the research community to provide the tourism industry and all those interested in tourism with up-to-date and relevant information on vacation travel demand. This is the challenge we have set ourselves, especially in these turbulent times.

Webinar with the authors

Aufzeichnung des Live-Webinars vom 11. Februar 2021

Available in package:

The Trend Study 2030 and the update are available as a package, both in printed form (softcover) and as a digital report (protected PDF) at a price of € 690 (plus currently valid VAT) directly from the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen (FUR) e.V..

ISBN Trendstudie 2030: 978-3-9819158-5-3
ISBN Update der Trendstudie 2030: 978-3-949752-00-1

Das Inhaltsverzeichnis der RA Trendstudie 2030 (PDF)

Das Inhaltsverzeichnis der RA Trendstudien Updates (PDF)